Davie Predicts the Oscars

In preparation for the 2011 Academy Awards ceremony this evening, I've decided to post my own Oscar predictions.  Unfortunately I haven't seen every film nominated (most regrettably, I somehow didn't see True Grit), but I've read enough about all the films that I think I can make educated guesses about them all.  I am also only making predictions about the major categories.  So in order to avoid making this intro last as ridiculously long as the awards ceremony will tonight, here are my predictions:

Best Picture Nominees*:
*denotes film I did not see

• 127 Hours*
• Black Swan
• The Fighter*
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit*
• Winter's Bone

 Will Win:  The King's Speech has gained enough momentum that it will beat out The Social Network for best picture.  True Grit or Black Swan could be a dark horse to win.
Should Win:  I loved The King's Speech, but the most deserving film is The Social Network.  There is a good chance I'd be picking True Grit if I had seen it.

Best Director:

• Darren Aronovsky - Black Swan
• Ethan Coen and Joel Coen - True Grit*
• David Fincher - The Social Network
• Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
• David O. Russell - The Fighter*

Will Win:  There's a strong chance David Fincher could win, but I think Tom Hooper will ride the tide of support for The King's Speech to win.
Should Win:  David Fincher.  And Christopher Nolan should have been nominated for Inception at the expense of either Tom Hooper or (from what I've heard) David O. Russell.

Best Actor:

• Javier Bardem - Biutiful*
• Jeff Bridges - True Grit*
• Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
• Colin Firth - The King's Speech
• James Franco - 127 Hours*

Will Win:  I don't see Jeff Bridges winning two year in a row.  Colin Firth continues The King's Speech's winning streak.
Should Win:  Colin Firth

Best Actress:

• Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
• Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole*
• Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
• Natalie Portman - Black Swan
• Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Will Win:  The Oscar is Natalie Portman's to lose, but I could see Annette Bening having an outside chance of pulling the upset.
Should Win: Michelle Williams and Jennifer Lawrence were both fantasic, but I'd still go with Portman.

Best Supporting Actor:

• Christian Bale - The Fighter*
• John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
• Jeremy Renner - The Town
• Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
• Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech

Will Win: Based on what I've heard, my money's on Christian Bale.  It is possible that Geoffrey Rush could ride The King's Speech's wave of success to victory.
Should Win: Having not seen Bale in The Fighter, Geoffrey Rush is far and away the best of the other nominees.

Best Supporting Actress:

• Amy Adams - The Fighter*
• Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
• Melissa Leo - The Fighter*
• Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit*
• Jackie Weaver - Animal Kingdom*

Will Win:  I've hardly seen any of the films in this category, but it sounds like Melissa Leo is the favorite.
Should Win:  Can't really say since I've only seen one of the nominees in this category.

Best Animated Feature:

• How to Train Your Dragon
• The Illusionist
• Toy Story 3

Will Win:  Obviously Toy Story 3.
Should Win:  I really all three movies, but Pixar deserves the award yet again.

Best Feature Documentary:

• Exit Through the Gift Shop
• Gasland
• Inside Job*
• Restrepo
• Waste Land*

Will Win: Exit might have an outside shot, but I'll bet the speculation that the film may not be a true documentary might turn off some of the voters.  I think the content of Inside Job will give it the edge.
Should Win:  The real winner should be The Tillman Story, but it wasn't nominated.  Of the nominees, Exit Through the Gift Shop was the best, although Resrepo is deserving as well.